By José Carlos Palma*
José Palma(ISSG): Welcome back to Strategic Horizons, where we dig into the most pressing international stories. Today’s topic could reshape not just current conflicts but the future of global security and the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran. It’s been a dramatic development, with implications for the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and beyond. With me are experts in international relations and military strategy Alexander Turner* and Daniel Robinson*.
José Palma: So, let’s recap. On Friday, US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer held a critical summit in Washington. One of the key issues discussed was Russia potentially sharing nuclear secrets with Iran in exchange for ballistic missiles. This collaboration has set off alarm bells across the West. What does this partnership mean for global security?
Alexander Turner: Well, it’s a huge concern. This isn’t just about the war in Ukraine. If Russia is truly sharing nuclear technology with Iran, we could be looking at a major shift in the balance of power, especially in the Middle East. Iran has been expanding its nuclear capabilities for years, and now, with potential Russian support, they could accelerate their program. That poses an existential threat to regional powers like Israel and could destabilize security across Europe and beyond.
José Palma: Secretary of State Antony Blinken also raised this issue during his speech in London, noting that Russia and Iran have been sharing technology in both nuclear and space domains. What are the broader implications of this, especially with Iran’s advanced ballistic missile systems now reportedly being supplied to Russia?
Daniel Robinson: The delivery of Iranian Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia is a game-changer. These are highly advanced missiles, capable of hitting targets up to 120 kilometers away. For Russia, they fill a critical gap in its war with Ukraine, giving Moscow more firepower as it struggles on the battlefield. But for the rest of the world, especially the West, this also signals that the Iran-Russia alliance is growing stronger—and that Russia is willing to trade-sensitive technology to maintain its war effort.
José Palma: The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief, fell apart in 2018 after the US pulled out under President Trump. Since then, Iran has been enriching uranium at levels far beyond what was agreed upon. Could this renewed cooperation with Russia push Iran closer to a nuclear weapon?
Alexander Turner: Absolutely, and that’s what has leaders like Biden and Starmer so worried. Iran has already stockpiled significant amounts of enriched uranium, and some experts believe they have enough material for multiple nuclear weapons. The involvement of Russian specialists could give Iran the technological know-how to build a bomb much faster. While Iran continues to deny that it wants nuclear weapons, the evidence points in a different direction.
José Palma: Let’s not forget Iran’s regional influence, especially its support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel has long viewed Iran’s potential nuclear capabilities as an existential threat. How does this growing Russia-Iran alliance change the equation for Israel and other Middle Eastern countries?
Daniel Robinson: Israel has always taken Iran’s nuclear ambitions very seriously, and the prospect of Iran getting closer to building a bomb, with Russian help, will likely push Israel into even more aggressive countermeasures. Israeli leaders have consistently said that they will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, and we could see preemptive strikes or cyberattacks targeting Iranian facilities. At the same time, Tehran’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas adds another layer of complexity, especially as these groups remain active against Israel.
José Palma: Blinken also warned that this new military partnership could destabilize security worldwide. It seems like we’re seeing an emerging “axis of upheaval” that includes Russia, Iran, China, and even North Korea. How do you see this alliance playing out on the global stage?
Alexander Turner: It’s worrying, for sure. The Russia-Iran relationship is just one piece of a broader realignment we’re seeing in global power dynamics. These nations are banding together in opposition to Western interests, forming what many are calling an “axis of upheaval.” For instance, China’s strategic goals, like dominating global trade and expanding its military reach, align with Russia and Iran’s desire to push back against US influence. North Korea, too, has been strengthening its ties with these countries, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
José Palma: Given this growing alliance and Iran’s role in providing arms to Russia, could we see a more aggressive response from Ukraine, especially in using Western-supplied missiles to strike deep into Russian territory?
Daniel Robinson: That’s a possibility. Ukraine has already hinted at targeting Russian military assets beyond the current battlefronts, and with the increased threat from Iranian ballistic missiles, Ukraine could push for greater latitude to use Western weapons for more strategic strikes. However, that could escalate the conflict further, dragging in more regional players and possibly even triggering confrontations with NATO forces.
José Palma: Lastly, where do we go from here? The US and its allies have already imposed sanctions on both Russia and Iran, but it seems like these efforts haven’t deterred their growing cooperation. What should the West’s next move be?
Alexander Turner: Sanctions are one tool, but clearly, they aren’t enough on their own. The West may need to ramp up military support for Ukraine while increasing diplomatic efforts to isolate both Russia and Iran on the global stage. At the same time, there’s an urgent need to revive nuclear diplomacy with Iran. If the world can’t get Iran back to the negotiating table, the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran will only grow.
José Palma: Thank you both for your insights on this critical issue. The evolving partnership between Russia and Iran, and its potential to spark new conflicts and security threats, is something the world will be watching closely. Stay tuned for more updates as this story unfolds. Thanks to our readers for joining us today on Strategic Horizons.
*Alexander Turner’s dedication to diplomacy, geopolitics, international relations, and the social sciences brings a wealth of knowledge and insight to our collaborative community. His ability to articulate complex concepts and navigate intricate global dynamics ensures that our readers stay informed and engaged with issues that shape our world.
*Daniel Robinson – role as a contributor goes beyond informative articles; it is a commitment to elevating our readers’ awareness of national security, government functions, country intelligence, military affairs, and intelligence operations. His dedication to precision and accuracy is reflected in the quality of his work.
Seasoned International Relations Analyst with 14+ years of experience at the American Republic Research Center. Specializing in a wide array of global affairs, including foreign policy, international trade, domestic and international security, intelligence, and military analysis. A trusted expert in geopolitical strategy with a focus on the complexities of developing nations, regional conflicts, and global power shifts. Deep understanding of how economic, political, and military factors intersect to shape international relations. Based in Arizona, USA, offering insights that influence policy and strategy on the global stage.