ISSG - International Studies of Strategic and Geopolitics

Navigating the Complexities of Iran’s Response: Balancing Act in the Face of Escalation

4Apr

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Navigating the Complexities of Iran’s Response: Balancing Act in the Face of Escalation

By Daniel Robinson* In the aftermath of recent events, particularly the Israeli strike which significantly escalated tensions, Iran finds itself at a critical juncture, forced to carefully calibrate its response. Observers and experts alike weigh in on the intricate dynamics unfolding, highlighting the delicate balance Iran must strike between demonstrating responsiveness without veering into full-scale confrontation. "They have faced this real dilemma that if they respond they could be courting a confrontation which they don't want," one analyst observed. This sentiment underscores Iran's cautious approach, seeking to avoid escalation while still signaling its ability to defend its interests. The potential consequences of Iran's response loom large, with v...

America Must Act to Prevent a Rwanda-Congo War

1Apr

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Africa, Regions

America Must Act to Prevent a Rwanda-Congo War

By José Carlos Palma* Introduction The Great Lakes region of Africa has been plagued by violence and conflict for decades, with the most recent major war resulting in the deaths of over 5 million people. Now, the looming threat of another devastating conflict between Rwanda and Congo is on the horizon, presenting a dire situation that demands immediate attention and intervention. In this article, I delve into the complex dynamics of the region, highlight the potential consequences of inaction, and argue for the crucial role that the United States must play in preventing further bloodshed. Understanding the Historical Context To comprehend the gravity of the current situation, it's essential to grasp the historical context of conflict in the Great Lakes region. Decades of ethnic tens...

Navigating Africa’s Geopolitical Chessboard: The Biden Administration’s Dilemma

19Mar

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Africa

Navigating Africa’s Geopolitical Chessboard: The Biden Administration’s Dilemma

By José Carlos Palma* In the intricate geopolitical chessboard of Africa, where global powers vie for influence and strategic partnerships, the Biden administration finds itself confronted with a delicate balancing act. On one hand, it champions the principles of sovereignty and freedom of choice for African nations in their international engagements. On the other, behind closed doors, it engages in strategic lobbying efforts, nudging these countries to reconsider their alliances. This duplicity, critics argue, risks alienating key partners and undermining U.S. interests on the continent. The recent remarks by an unnamed source, lamenting the perceived hypocrisy of U.S. policy in Niger, encapsulate the complexities and challenges facing American diplomacy in Africa. While publicly ad...

The Global Elections Supercycle of 2024: Navigating Uncertainties in a Sea of Choices

11Feb

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Global politics

The Global Elections Supercycle of 2024: Navigating Uncertainties in a Sea of Choices

By José Carlos Palma* As the world ushers in the year 2024, a global phenomenon is set to take center stage: the Elections Supercycle. With voters in countries representing approximately 54% of the world's population and nearly 60% of the global GDP heading to the polls, the reverberations of these electoral exercises will resonate far beyond national borders. This unprecedented convergence of elections is poised to create waves of regulatory and policy uncertainty, shaping the short and medium-term landscape of international affairs. A Magnitude Unprecedented: The 2024 Global Elections Supercycle The sheer scale of the Elections Supercycle in 2024 is staggering. Nations spanning Asia, Europe, North and South America, and beyond will engage in the democratic process, collectively infl...

Oceans Take Center Stage: Navigating the Geopolitical Seas in 2024

11Feb

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Geopolitics and International Security

Oceans Take Center Stage: Navigating the Geopolitical Seas in 2024

By José Carlos Palma* As the world strides into 2024, the geopolitical landscape is set to undergo a transformative shift with the oceans taking on increased geostrategic prominence. The year ahead promises to be marked by a deepening realization of the oceans' significance as a vital ecosystem, economic powerhouse, and a crucial factor in global security. The Oceanic Epicenter: A Hub of Life and Resources The oceans, covering about 71% of Earth's surface, have long been acknowledged as the cradle of life. In 2024, this recognition is set to deepen as a staggering 94% of all life on the planet calls the oceans home. From microscopic organisms to majestic whales, the biodiversity within the oceanic realm is unparalleled. Beyond its ecological importance, the ...

Unveiling the Submerged Symphony: The Strategic Significance of the U.S. Navy’s 2010 Submarine Surfacing Near China

30Jan

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Geopolitics and International Security, Asia

Unveiling the Submerged Symphony: The Strategic Significance of the U.S. Navy’s 2010 Submarine Surfacing Near China

Photo: U.S. Navy Ohio Class Submarine By José Carlos Palma* In the annals of geopolitical maneuvering, the year 2010 stands as a pivotal moment when the United States, under the Obama Administration, orchestrated a compelling and strategic demonstration of maritime dominance. The scene was set in the Indo-Pacific region, where tensions were simmering, and China's ascent as a formidable power was becoming increasingly evident. Contextualizing the Era The early 2010s were marked by a whirlwind of global events, from the signing of the technocratic Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act (Obamacare) to populist uprisings worldwide. Amidst this backdrop, China emerged as a focal point, signaling its potential to become a regional hegemon in Northeast Asia, challenging the longstan...

Iran’s Strategic Missile Strikes Escalate Regional Tensions: Targets Include Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan

29Jan

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Middle East, Geopolitics and International Security, Study Office

Iran’s Strategic Missile Strikes Escalate Regional Tensions: Targets Include Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan

By José Carlos Palma* Date: 29 January 2024 In a series of coordinated missile attacks, Iran has escalated its regional conflict by targeting strategic positions in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan. The missile strikes, which began as responses to perceived threats from these nations, have added fuel to an already tense geopolitical landscape. Syrian Retaliation for Suicide Bombings: Iran's attack on Syria comes in the aftermath of devastating suicide bombings in Kerman, Iran, claiming nearly 100 lives. Syria, under President Bashar al-Assad, has been a key ally for Iran in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). The Iranian response underscores its commitment to defending its interests and supporting its regional allies. Erbil Struck Amidst Israel-Iran Tensions:...

Assessing the Military Situation in the Horn of Africa: A Complex Geopolitical Landscape

19Jan

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Africa, Geopolitics and International Security, Regions

Assessing the Military Situation in the Horn of Africa: A Complex Geopolitical Landscape

By José Carlos Palma* The Horn of Africa, a strategic region at the intersection of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, has long been a hotbed of conflict and instability. Recent years have seen a resurgence of violence in the region, with several countries grappling with armed insurgencies, territorial disputes, and political unrest. Ethiopian Civil War: A Prolonged and Devastating Conflict The epicenter of the current crisis lies in Ethiopia, where a civil war has raged for over two years between the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The conflict has caused widespread devastation, displacing millions of people and triggering a humanitarian crisis. In recent months, the TPLF has made significant gains in the northern Ti...

Neo-Fascist Salute Raises Alarms: Calls for Disbandment and Political Fallout in Italy

15Jan

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Europe

Neo-Fascist Salute Raises Alarms: Calls for Disbandment and Political Fallout in Italy

By ISSG Staff ROME, Italy — Italy has been thrust into a state of shock and outrage as a video emerged, revealing a group of individuals engaging in a neo-fascist salute during a political rally. The incident has sparked widespread condemnation, with calls for the disbandment of neo-fascist organizations and concerns about the country's political landscape. The video captures a disturbing scene where participants, dressed in black, stand in unison while performing the fascist salute. This display, reminiscent of Italy's dark history under Benito Mussolini, has raised deep concerns about the resurgence of far-right ideologies in the country. Francesco Vezzoli, a prominent Italian contemporary artist, expressed his distress, stating, "You see them all moving as one, and that’s very up...

Navigating Governance Challenges in Postwar Gaza: Strengthening the Palestinian Authority

4Jan

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Middle East, Geopolitics and International Security, Study Office

Navigating Governance Challenges in Postwar Gaza: Strengthening the Palestinian Authority

By José Carlos Palma* As the echoes of explosions and gunfire subside, the critical question of who will govern Gaza in the aftermath of the war looms large. With options limited, the Palestinian Authority (PA) emerges as a potential candidate, despite its own set of challenges. In this analysis, we explore the complexities surrounding Gaza's governance and delve into potential strategies for revitalizing the PA to play a central role in the region's stability. Current Challenges: Hamas Dilemma: Hamas, a prominent Palestinian organization, is not an acceptable option for Israel due to security concerns. Israel remains determined not to let Hamas rebuild its military capabilities, posing a significant obstacle to the group's governance in Gaza. Israeli Occupation Co...